讲座题目：A Theory of Consumption with Inventories(可储存品的消费理论)
讲座时间：2025年4月1日14：30
讲座地点：理工楼南516
主讲人（简介）：万军民，中国国籍，日本福冈大学经济学教授，博士生导师，北京大学新结构经济研究院客座教授。他的研究领域涵盖宏观经济学、金融学和发展经济学。他出版了根据其博士论文改编的关于成瘾的专著，并在国际期刊（如，Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, The World Economy, International Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Development Economics, Journal of Japanese and International Economies等）发表了二十多篇论文，主题涉及泡沫溢价、时间约束的理性泡沫理论、投机储蓄理论、家庭过度债务、固定投资年限、企业过度投资、商业银行不良贷款、有奖发票理论、任务型人力资本理论等。曾担任瑞士国家科学基金评审和二十多家国际期刊的审稿人，在加入福冈大学之前，他曾在大阪大学担任助理教授。他于大阪大学获得经济学博士学位、硕士学位和学士学位。
讲座内容（简介）：A consumer is likely to encounter two prices for the same storable product. For example, the price of cosmetics in domestic market could be several times higher than that in foreign countries, and a beverage will likely be more expensive at a convenience store than a less convenient shopping mall. Under this “one goods two prices’’ environment, here we model the consumer’s consumption with purchase by combining the lifetime consumption by Ramsey (1928, Economic Journal) with optimal inventory policy by Arrow (1951, Econometrica). Using closed-form solutions, we showed that purchase frequency, lifetime consumption, fixed costs, and inventory costs are simultaneously determined. Although the optimal path of consumption shows a smooth curve in the absence of inventory costs, it demonstrates a “saw-toothed” shape when time-dependent inventory costs and repeated “explosive purchasing” behavior are considered. Our paper contributes to accurately estimate the consumer price index by identifying that the price of consumption is different from the price of purchase. Furthermore, our model could also be used to predict the inbound-outbound tourism demand, and to predict the demand of a shopping mall.